Monday, March 22, 2021

Who should get vaccinated first?

Vaccination no doubt creates hope for a rapid recovery of our severely impacted economy and resumption of normal life from the long painful fight against the pandemic. The questions that concern most of us are which vaccine is more effective and whether the side effects are tolerable. Moreover, of greater interest to the policymakers is who should get vaccinated first, and which order of priority would result in the shortest time to herd immunity and/or the use of minimum resources. The point is that we don't have to vaccinate the weak or more vulnerable groups in order to protect them, but rather to vaccinate the spreaders in the community and hence protect the entire community. An elderly person could safely live in her nursing home if there were no infected caretakers or visitors!

In February 2021, Hong Kong government began offering free vaccine to the more vulnerable groups, including the elderly, medical and healthcare workers, and then teachers, taxi drivers, restaurant workers, etc., the rationale being the need for protection. However, taking a more scientific approach, the entire community is actually a network of people. Each individual has his or her own contacts. Some have more and some have less. An elderly person living in a nursing home under intermediate care would typically meet with three or four people (mostly caretakers or a couple of family visitors) daily. On the other hand, a cashier working in a convenience store could be in contact with hundreds of customers per day. In terms of the likelihood of spreading the virus, people having more contacts (technically called "degree" in a network) should more likely be the key spreaders.

A more effective approach may be to classify different groups according to the statistical average of the contact links per day. For instance, a taxi driver carries an average of 300 passengers a day; a restaurant waiter serves an average of 100 patrons a day; a teacher interacts with 50 students a day; and so on. Then, if we prioritize our order of vaccinating different groups in our community according to the average contact number of the groups, we should theoretically reach the nerd immunity state much quicker.

This is a research topic worth studying!

March 22, 2021

Wednesday, March 17, 2021

英式優雅

Harry 皇子和 Meghan 皇妃在 Oprah Winfrey 的一個電視訪問中,大說英國皇室的不是,言之鑿鑿,指控皇室成員種族歧視。英美媒體廣泛報導,網民加鹽加醋,煽動仇視皇室情緒,若處理不當,可釀成憲制危機。 事態嚴重,女皇也急忙發表聲明反駁,短短六十一字,優雅得體,但棉裡藏針,訓示兩個不肖子孫勿再造謠生事,毀皇室清譽。

女皇淡然一句「 recollections may vary」(記憶也許存在出入),彷彿指著 Harry 和 Meghan 說「你兩條友仔咪亂噏廿四」;然後再溫馨提醒他們這些家事「將 (應) 在家裡私下處理」(will be addressed by the family privately),也就是跟他們說「有嘢就返來講,唔好喺外面唱我」。英式英語之強乃在於器量的展現。雖然給 Harry 和 Meghan 公開罵了兩小時,身為他們祖母的英女皇還在聲明開端代表皇室「對他們過去幾年面對的挑戰表示痛心」(The whole family is saddened to learn the full extent of how challenging the last few years have been for Harry and Meghan.),最後還說「Harry 和 Meghan 永遠是她至愛的家人」(will always be much loved family members.),如此溫文大方,令人佩服!

若以當今中國特色語言來表達,Harry 和 Meghan 必定是「受外 (美) 國勢力操控惡意中傷皇室」,接受「別有用心的媒體訪問」,並「嚴重傷害英國人的人民感情」,英國全體人民必定「堅決反對」,要求 Harry 和 Meghan 「立刻停止抹黑以女皇為核心的英國皇室的錯誤行為」,英國將「追究到底」,要他們「付出沈重代價」,英國政府將保證「這些反英圖謀不會得逞」。

單憑表達不滿時所用的語言,可以反映一個人 (國家) 的器量和自信(也許說話的實際對象有異), 同時也是軟實力的一種體現。英式英文,對比當今中國特色的中文,高下立見。


2021年3月18日

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