Where is Cathay?

Most people would know that the word Cathay, the name of Hong Kong's flagship airline, is the ancient name for China, but very few actually acknowledge that Cathay is an alternative word for Khitay or Qidan (契丹), a name familiar to most Chinese people who have had some basic Chinese history education. The coverage of Khitay was pretty much the entire northern China nowadays, including the present-day capital city of Beijing. Spanning over 200 years, from 916 to 1125 AD, Khitay was known as the Liao (遼) dynasty until it was ultimately defeated by the Mongolians or Jin (金). When the Liao dynasty was a prominent part of Asia, the Europeans and most nations from the west saw Khitay as the most important and dominant center of the east and regarded it as the whole of China. Hence, Khitay almost meant the whole of China to the then-Western world. Even until now, Kitai is still the Russian word for China. (Map on right: Metropolitan Museum of Art, New York)

It is, however, interesting to note that contemporary Chinese history texts often classify Qidan during its 200 years of prime time as a foreign tribe, while considering the Song (宋) dynasty as the true representation of China, which differs from the Western perspective. Despite being acknowledged as the definitive China, the Song dynasty had relatively limited territorial sovereignty. In contrast, the Tang (唐) dynasty, in its most prosperous era, claimed control over a much larger northern boundary, but it did not possess complete sovereignty over the entire territory in a technical sense, either politically infeasible or uninterested in achieving so. In recent years, we have heard so much from official comments that certain geographical regions have been part of China since ancient times (自古以來). The historical truth, however, does not quite support it, or one would need to pinpoint "how ancient" or "since when" the comment refers to. History is not a singular moment, but rather a continuous timeline encompassing countless events, each contributing to the tapestry of our present reality. Every region of China, whether it be the south, north, west, or beyond, can be traced through history to reveal its existence within various contexts—within the realm of sovereign boundaries, under foreign rule, or even as an independent entity with its distinct origins. Our Cantonese region could once have been an unwelcome part of China (南蠻) but could also have been a legitimate part of China for a significantly long period of time and certainly a very important part today. 

May 27, 2024

新能源汽車產業的收場

經濟學101的基本供求關係，由市場控制，供多了就要降價，求過於供則價格得以提高。澳洲的農夫寧願把過剩的農產品掉進垃圾桶也不願推出市場售賣，他們集體行動，誰都不能破壞規矩。能保持高價是對生活質素的保障，把價錢做爛了就只有白做。中國人喜歡自己顧自己，你不賣我賣，你出價10元，我就賣9元搶客。同一理念，政府帶頭影響國際市場。自2010年，中國高額補貼電動車生產商，一輛續航力達250公里的純電動車，國家給60000元補貼，續航力只有80公里的，也有35000元補貼。地方政府也有補貼，插電混合動力車4800元，純電動車12600元。結果是不少汽車企業加入，以吃大茶飯的心態，大量製造低續航力的廉價電動車，製造商拿了政府的補貼後，再以另一家公司購回，換取地方政府補貼。市場根本消化不下，加上疫情後需求大幅下滑，最終大量電動車堆在空地上。

歷史重演，中國曾經為了發展半導體、通信等產業，投放不少資源並推出大額項目支持相關行業，但時至今天，中國還未能在半導體產業上取得領先地位。過去十年大力推動新能源汽車產業發展，重蹈覆轍，務求擺脫先進國家的牽制。從數字看來，這次中國的確很成功，去年外銷汽車522.1萬輛，其中120.3萬輛是新能源汽車，成為世界之冠。但是，從2016年到2022年中國政府補貼新能源汽車至少570億美元（Alix Partners報告指），如此巨額補貼是中國新能源汽車能以低價取勝的關鍵。長遠來看，這種銷售策略必會成為行業最大的發展障礙。當越來越多企業投入競爭，加上市場的庫存壓力，自然引發價格戰，內地媒體以「血拚」來形容現時由比亞迪掀起的價格戰。中國100多家生產商，相信不少聞所未聞。內需難以消化龐大的產能，外銷是唯一出路，不難估計結果將是自相殘殺，同時禍及國際企業，對中國的經濟長遠發展起不了正面影響。

中國補貼的問題不單在新能源汽車產業上出現，航空業也如是。澳洲於2016年取消了限制來往中國與澳洲的航班數量的相互協議，意味著兩國旗下來往中澳的航班無需在數量上維持對等。中國東航背後有國家支持，票價可以降至澳航無法抵禦的水平，最終迫使澳航取消了最繁忙的上海悉尼航線，澳航稱該航線的搭乘率只達50%。跟電動車產業一樣，都是直接或間接由政府補貼，以國家的資源來與外企競爭，取得一時的勝利。問題是中國的企業能否長期依賴補貼來維持競爭力呢？換另一個角度看，是誰的錢補貼了誰的生意？BMW、Mercedes、Posche 是靠什麼建立在行業的領導地位？ LV、Chanel 那些名牌又是靠什麼來長期吸引顧客呢？

2024年5月26日