無可避免的抗疫終點站

九個月前寫下的 Blog 有以下的猜想：

“... ... 倘若 Omicron 在內地爆發，相信中央政府亦難敵經濟滑落的壓力或民眾的極端反應，恐怕也要放棄「動態清零」了，推出「中國式共存」新口號，例如先把新冠病毒歸類為甚麼新感冒，到時候港府官員及一眾忠心耿耿的良好市民也定必出來擁護「中國香港式共存」！把話說得太盡，不留轉身餘地，實在不智。明明說好要「堅持清零」到底，不負中央心意，突然轉軚又情何以堪？明明說過與病毒共存就必共赴黃泉，但倘若中央一聲令下，又馬上毫不動搖的去配合黃泉之路。說得過去嗎？” --- 2022年3月

現在基本上可以說是應驗了。事實上，基於科學數據和觀察先進國家於2022年初開始對抗疫政策的轉向，也不難估計所謂「共存」將是全球唯一合理的抗疫終點站。

沒想到的是內地的180度轉向，毫無準備的撤銷幾乎所有的防疫措施，各城市海嘯式爆發的消息不斷傳出，由於官方行事欠缺透明度，外界無法得知中國疫情的實質情況，加上在大規模的爆發下，有鑑於去年印度的 Delta 病毒株，病毒變種確實存在一些不確定性。歷史重回到2020年初武漢的情況，各國紛紛從新向中、港、澳人士作出入境限制，如從新要求提供PCR陰性證明方可入境等措施，對蠢蠢欲動的港人做成嚴重打擊！樂觀的看，現在大部份地區包括香港的疫苗接種率已達至足夠建立免疫屏障，即使再爆發理應比2020年的輕微。

可憐的香港政府，全無自主能力，一班醫學精英只能被動應對。中央說要毫不動搖的清零，局長也毫不動搖的追隨，在年初至今 Omicron 流行的感染數據和病徵已廣受理解的背景下，仍然發表黃泉偉論。如今中央說要與「新冠感染」共存（正確的說法是「新冠肺炎」已經成功清零了）， 局長也毫不動搖的追隨，需有點兒尷尬，仍然理直氣壯的撤銷幾乎所有防疫措施。港府官員過去數個月的表現，證明只需緊緊追隨中央的路線，絕對忠誠，已經功德圓滿了。

但某某重要人物又好像曾經說過「忠誠廢物」也不為中央所欲！所以說，當官難就難在如何精準揣摩上意。不論你的能力有多高，想法有多好，不符中央心意也只是自作聰明。但只懂盲跟中央，做其應聲蟲，亦恐被指為一件忠誠廢物，難逃最終被棄置的宿命！

2022年12月29日

Japan tops the most likeable country list!

Since Japan reopened to foreign visitors, it has been on the top of the priority list for the starved tourists all over Asia. Over 90% of Hong Kong people have put Japanese cities as their first and preferred destinations. The likeableness of Japan is self-evident, as thousands have rushed to pack their luggage for a Japanese holiday since October. Tokyo, Osaka, Kyoto, Nagoya, Sapporo, Fukuoka, ..., are all on the booking list. Airlines have been resuming flights to Japanese cities as first-tier destinations, amidst the slowly recovering flight capacity. Other Asian cities apparently don't get a proportionate share! 

As a post-pandemic observation, countries having this level of charm do reflect a cultural strength and soft power that took years to build. The variety of attractions Japan offers is amazing, from beef rice bowls to fine omakase dining, concert halls to vinyl cafes, designer brands to vintage, city walk to natural scenic hike, homestay to hot spring resorts, and general to subcultural interests, all representing a very unique destination for visitors with different interests. More importantly, Japanese society is generally admired by visitors for being polite, patient, friendly, fair, and subtly sophisticated. The many small details, which people could hardly recall one by one, have added up to make people feel the comfort and peace of mind, including the friendly facilities, the aestheticity of Japanese design, advanced yet subtle technology, clean and calm environment, the feeling of safety, etc. You don't get to see people shout in subways or dance with noisy loudspeaker music in parks or public squares!

It's interesting to probe a bit into what makes a country so likeable, or on the contrary so unlikeable! After the three years of the pandemic, we clearly see the differences and find part of the answers being rooted in the way a country is run, how people are educated and what values they hold. 

December 28, 2022

寫楷書難在哪裡？ 書法初學者應從何開始？

信不少研習書法的朋友都會認同「楷書」是各種書體當中最難寫得好的。初學者如先寫楷書會感到進度緩慢，容易氣餒，彷彿怎寫也寫不好！相反，先學隸書的初學者就比較容易滿足，愉快學習！這個現象聽起來不太科學，為何楷書總是寫不好呢？

楷書字體隨處可見，幾乎是中文字的參考書體（reference）。無論是印刷字體、電腦字體、街頭巷尾的招牌字體，皆以楷書為主。由於楷書字體已經不知不覺印在腦裡，成為一種黑板印象（stereotype）。不少人在看到楷書作品時，不期然地把作品與印象中的楷書範本對比，便理所當然的發現「誤差」，或者覺得不太「對辦」。所以，把初學者的楷書作品對比熟識的參考書體，總是看不順眼，這是視角和認知上的先入為主所致。書寫者也同樣不知不覺的追求與印象中的楷書看齊，對初學者來說，容易感到挫敗，半途而廢。隸書則不是，大部份人對隸書的印象雖不陌生，但亦未達到有參考印象的程度，所以無「辦」可對，即使變異範圍較大，仍可以接受。況且，隸書給人古樸的感覺，觀賞時往往以欣賞藝術的心態和角度，不會計較字體是否偏離印象中的範本。故此，初學者如先寫隸書，每多獲得正面的鼓勵，加強自信和滿足感。

一般書信、通告、啟示則以「行書」居多，所以「行書」是最具實用性的書體。而行書是基於楷書，故必先熟悉楷書筆法，才能寫行。歸納以上的論述，初學者應該從「隸」開始，學習控筆的各種技巧，進而入「楷」，努力鞏固楷書的基本功，然後才自由自在地「行」走於不同書體，享受書法的樂趣。日子有功，更能創出自己的書寫風格，欣賞別人的作品時，亦可脫離黑板印象，用不同角度去欣賞作品的美感和創意。


2022年11月18日

It's time to make a turn!

中國實行了接近三年針對新冠疫情的「清零」防控政策，西方國家望塵莫及，更無法想像中國如何能長期實施封省、封城、封區、天天檢測核酸、限制出入自由的同時，大多數老百姓又彷彿心甘情願配合政府的抗疫政策，相信國家為了保障人民健康，毫不動搖的堅持「清零」政策，並對國家心存感激！如此順民，神州以外，天下難尋！

要解構中國的「清零」創舉，必先理解政府長久以來為社會創造的基本條件，其中關鍵之一在於控制資訊的內容和流通。中國之所以能體現和諧社會，全憑對資訊的全面規劃和高度監控。想像一下，如果你所接收的唯一資訊，把感染新冠說成世上最可怕的絕症，一旦感染了新冠病毒，就必死無疑，算是僥倖避過死神，也只剩半條人命，將來的生活還可能面對其他人的歧視；那麼，你也許都會毫不懷疑的配合當局的防疫政策，直至當局宣布抗疫成功，解除所有防疫措施。如果你知道西方國家已經開放，恢復正常生活的話，告訴你他們是「躺平」，是不負責任的政府，你更要加倍感恩在中國受到保護。而事實上，從2020年初開始，新冠病毒的主導病毒株的演變從 alpha、beta、gamma，一直到2022年初的 omicron，感染力增強，但同時殺傷力減弱，與流感相比，已無多大區別。西方國家的先進疫苗和高接種率的事實，更不跟你說！科學一點，誰說流感不會死人？誰說流感不會導致嚴重後遺症？誰說流感不會對醫療系統做成嚴重影響？每年的流感高峰期，為何不封省、封城、封區？ 

問題是，若抗疫路線同時是政治路線的展現，一旦政治狀況有所改變，抗疫路線有調整餘地的時候，如何把劇本改編，令人民從新接受新冠病毒其實並不可怕，大家可以放心，似乎也有一定難度。新冠病毒演變成風土病的趨勢，相信無可避免，劇本終需改寫，大家可以拭目以待！

局長以及一眾高官為表忠誠，政治先行，發表愚蠢及違背科學的言論，並堅持不合時宜的抗疫政策。倘若中央的抗疫政策有所改變（基於外國經驗和科學分析，與病毒共存是必然的路），不再堅持清零的話，相信最難堪的莫過於這群精英們，大家可以翹埋雙手看他們的面皮有多厚！

2022年11月15日

「事頭婆」走了！

英女王伊利莎白二世於2022年9月8日逝世，掀起許多香港人對97前的一些回憶，尤其是對這位「事頭婆」的離去感到惋惜，對比現在的情況湧出莫名的一份傷感。

1975年，事頭婆訪港，當時我讀小五，在電視上看到她到訪馬場、珍寶海鮮舫、何文田愛民村、香港仔避風塘的直播片段，全程看不見嚴密的保安，顯然是英式統治文化，刻意給香港人一種友善、隨和、與民同樂的感覺。還記得她在探訪愛民村的場面，居民夾道歡迎，有些人站在騎樓走廊揮手歡呼，事頭婆也願意與市民零距離接觸，場面溫馨，氣氛熱鬧。

今天的國家領導人訪港，保安嚴密，只有少數高級別人士才可以接近，朝見者還需自我隔離數天，確保領導人絕對安全。作為小市民，在電視上看到幾分鐘的新聞報導，皆是拘謹、嚴肅的訓話場面，朝見者機械式拍掌，領導人木無表情。對比「事頭婆」訪港時的親民場面，實有天淵之別。今天的特區官員不停感謝領導人對港的恩賜，高調廣播領導人的指示，以個人崇拜式的態度對領導人的每句講話逐一分析和學習。當年英女王選擇探訪「愛民」村，含蓄表達了來訪的意義，而女王的親民形象，至今還印在不少市民心中！

一個國家的軟實力從領導人出巡的安排亦可見一斑。細心想想，為何要高度設防？為何要那麼害怕？反映的是什麼狀況？再伸延一點，我們從小就會唱惡搞版的英國國歌「個個揸住個兜」，英國人從來不介意，政府也從未因此起訴任何市民（當年也有禁止侮辱英女王的相關法例）。今天回想起來，當年理所當然的自由現在已變得不可思議，「個個揸住個兜」明明是諷刺英國人像乞丐，可視為煽動對英國的仇恨，惡性散播反政府言論，以今天的國安標準，絕對可以引用國安法起訴違法者。事實上，今天的香港，有人因出版帶有諷刺或反對政府的漫畫而被判刑，犯人無兵無炮，純發表刊物以足夠被裁定有罪，在自由國家，實在匪夷所思。值得深思的是，國家實力若如此雄厚，為何容不下半點反對聲音？

2022年9月9日

劉學清「臨書閒趣」：鮮有的香港書法家字帖集

不少書法愛好者喜歡收藏字帖，尤其是高質素的印刷版字帖，包括經典碑帖，如漢隸、顏楷碑帖，以及近代和現代書法家的臨摹作品。高質素的經典字帖除具藝術和觀賞價值之外，也是學習書法不可缺少的教材。

在香港要找好的字帖，很多書法愛好者會到一些文房專門店（如：中環文聯莊、佐敦友生昌）， 或到幾家大型書店（如：誠品、商務、三聯、天地）。我在香港一直尋找印刷版字帖，買下了不少林林總總的印刷版碑帖、臨摹版字帖。發現大多數可觀的臨摹版字帖都是出自台灣書法家的作品，作者對字帖的背景和特色也有中肯的解釋或評論。其次是內地書法家出版的，但由於前言後語以簡體字印製，對應原文亦較易有失誤，讀起時感到吃力和不慣，故甚少購買。香港本地書法家呢？完全不見蹤影！

其實，香港絕對不乏造詣非凡的書法家，學習書法的人也為數不少。那麼，為何從不見本地書法家的著作面世？相信是環境因素和生活方式所致，本地書法作品雖產量不多，但屢見於大大小小的展覽會展出（疫情前），設班授徒更不在話下了。至於著書或出版字帖，需要投放大量時間、精力和資源，產品售價也不高，乃「不化算」之舉，故鮮有本地書法家和出版商願意出版高質素的印刷版字帖。

最近，資深書法家劉學清老師，在疫情期間，教學活動幾乎停頓之際，閒在家裡享受臨書之樂，大量碑帖重新臨寫。劉老師的學生不捨這麼漂亮的作品困在書齋，遂建議結集成書，公諸同好。本年六月，劉學清老師的「臨書閒趣」，一套五冊在港出版，選錄劉老師臨摹的經典隸書、楷書、行書作品。「臨書閒趣」在三聯、天地也可找到。終於看見香港書法家的著作面世，實在可喜，衷心祝賀劉老師！

期望香港書法家能夠在從事藝術和教學之餘，投放一點時間著書存世，供後輩學習參考，同時提高香港書法界在華人社會的影響力！

2022年6月21日

HBO GO owes all Hong Kong subscribers an explanation

HBO GO owes all Hong Kong subscribers a formal notice for speeding up the playback rate of all movies and TV series. In response to my complaint, HBO GO's local operator (PCCW) acknowledged the distorted playback of all sources currently on HBO GO Hong Kong, and blamed the different video formats played in the Asian region, but did not seem to be willing to inform its subscribers that they have been paying to see distorted contents.

In a nutshell, HBO GO plays all contents faster in Hong Kong and with slightly but noticeably higher pitch when compared to the original sources. To find out what you are actually watching, just compare any episode of any TV series with corresponding parts in a trailer available on YouTube, and you will clearly notice everything (dialog, music, ...) is more rapidly played and sound is shifted up by roughly a semi-tone on HBO GO. You can imagine when a piece of music is played faster and at a higher pitch, it is not the same music intended by its composer! Likewise, a dialog said more rapidly does not convey the same impression the director has intended. But if your only source is HBO GO, you won't even know that you are being cheated!

So, Hong Kong subscribers are not getting the correct products that the content creators have carefully designed and produced for their viewers. At least, the subscribers should be told and be allowed to decide whether they wish to pay for distorted contents.

PCCW sent a friendly customer service to help me unsubscribe the service, but neither wanted to address the issue nor intended to inform its subscribers about this serious technical deficiency.

May 15, 2022

招牌字體給一個城市的集體印象

若問香港的街景給訪客留下什麼印象？相信最普遍的答案會是在大街小巷掛滿的各式各樣以中文正楷書寫的招牌、門牌和廣告牌。雖然隨著時代變遷，採用乏味的電腦字體越趨普遍，但傳統的書法字體仍然佔一席位。講到香港的招牌，從上世紀六十年代開始，已流行採用楷體為主的書寫字體，據說大多數招牌上的字都是出自一位在街頭擺檔的「寫字佬」李漢先生的手筆。這位李先生的字，在香港各區的街道流行了大半個世紀。由於當時製作招牌廣告的需求巨大，李先生把字典上的常用字都書寫下來，在退休前將整套書法手稿贈予一位製作招牌的好友李威。最近，李威的兒子決定將整套李漢字體數碼化，以眾籌方式製作電腦字體（ttf, otf），產品今年二月已經面世*。我剛買了一套「李漢港楷」標準版，馬上製作了幾個常用的 sticker，在WhatsApp上獨家使用！  

每個城市都有代表她的的一種視角印象，而街景就是組成這種印象的主要成分。「李漢港楷」代表的正是香港獨特的視角印象。 我對台灣、大陸城市也有同樣的印象。台灣的招牌字體也是楷書字體，據說大多出自劉元祥先生的手筆。幾年前在台北偶遇一位書店老闆，從他手中買下了一套絕版的劉元祥字彙，留作參考。李漢和劉元祥的字體，分別代表兩個地區的城市印象，兩款字體皆以顏體為藍本，端正厚重、不花不巧，對招牌背後的寶號甚有象徵意義。至於大陸城市，腦海中的印象是仿毛體寫成的政治標語，不同年代有不同口號，「为人民服务」、「和平、民主、团结」、「中华民族伟大复兴」等等，近幾年大城小鎮都掛滿電腦字體印製的「高举 XJPxxxxxxxxx 理论的伟大旗帜」的巨型橫額！

2022年4月28日

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*https://www.leehonhk.store/aboutstore

How likely you have a friend already infected with Omicron if you live in Hong Kong?

The official infected number in the fifth wave of Covid in Hong Kong so far is around 1.2 million, out of the total population of 7.5 million. So, 16% of our population have got infected with Omicron, and 84% not yet infected. This means the probability that any particular person in Hong Kong has got infected is 0.16. Let's assume this is the case.

Suppose you have N friends. The question is how likely at least one of your friends is among the 1.2 million. A shortcut to finding the answer is to first consider the complementary question of how likely none of your friends has got infected, and that's simply 0.84^N.

The complement of this probability is exactly the probability of having at least one of your friends infected, which is 1 – 0.84^N.

So, if you have 10 friends, i.e., N = 10, you have 82.5% chance of having at least one of your friends infected. If you have 20 friends, it's 96.94% chance, and if you have 40 friends, 99.9%. On average, each person has around 150 contacts on her or his phone book, according to Dunbar's number. That means the chance is 1.

April 24, 2022

Hair Salons — Subtly Indispensable! 原來飛髮舖係咁重要！

Have you ever thought seriously about what has been truly indispensable to you?

The two-year-long pandemic has trained people to tolerate the absence of facilities that used to be considered essential or to find alternatives to the activities they used to enjoy. Most people have now got used to living without fitness centres, sports venues, cinemas, concert halls, and even restaurants (after 6pm), but not hair salons!   

Seeing the aggressive fifth wave of covid, Hong Kong Government panickedly added barbershops and hair salons in early February to the list of business venues that were ordered to close.  But in less than a month, the government decided to allow barbershops and hair salons to reopen, after realizing the subtle but desperate need for getting a haircut by most people!  Other businesses were jealous of such exclusive privilege to reopen. 

The importance of barbershops and hair salons has obviously been underestimated or totally unnoticed. Only until now when Government ordered their closure that people seriously felt their vitality! On the day before closure, we saw long queues of people outside almost all QB House branches rushing to get a haircut, and on the first day of reopening, we again saw long queues of people fearing possible sudden reclosure of barbershops. What a phenomenon! 

My 80-year-old father-in-law rushed to get his first jab of covid vaccine just for the sake of getting access to his favourite barbershop!   

March 23, 2022

堅持清零的困惑

過去兩星期，香港第五波疫情進入高峰期，政府起初放風決意於三月底進行全民檢測，配合極端嚴厲的隔離和社交距離措施，務求盡快找出隱形患者，切斷傳播鏈，恢復動態清零，言之鑿鑿，幾萬人被嚇得匆忙離境，當中包括香港人和在港工作的外國人。

西方發達國家對變種病毒 (Omicron) 作為主流新冠病毒的病癥和嚴重性已有一定的認識，疫苗接種已達到廣泛程度(95%)，加上感染率亦已接近飽和。根據外國數據，Omicron 的威脅性已跟一般流感病毒無異，雖不能令它徹底消失，但縱然與它共存也沒甚可怕。香港錄得的死亡率（至今0.7%）比其他國家多出三成以上，和內地相比更誇張得不合情理，原因可能與死亡分類的方法有關，若將Omicron與其他病因一併計算的話，死亡率必定偏高。例如，把一位癌症末期病人感染 Omicron 後死亡的個案納入計算 Omicron 的死亡率是否恰當？ 正當大部分發達國家已經重新開放，港府還堅持清零，透過親政府人士不斷宣傳清零的好處（甚至宣揚「不清零即赴黃泉」的謬論），花費巨額建造大量隔離設施為滿足全民檢測之後衍生的隔離需要。要強調的是，「清零」的好處是無庸置疑的，但鑒於變種病毒的性質、可控性及疫苗接種率的客觀因數，理性抗疫的抉擇應在乎能否平衡可行性、社會代價和經濟代價。

政府的抗疫政策明顯脫離科學現實，面對嚴重下滑的經濟，「派錢」是唯一補教方案，但依然堅持「清零」作為抗疫目標，官員還掩耳盜鈴的假定市民相信官方發放的信息，而事實上，國際資訊仍可在香港流通，大部份香港人和在港工作的外國人已掌握 Omicron 的科學數據和對不同年齡人士的風險，並在社交媒體提出各種質疑。港府在國際社會的眼中，表現得極為愚昧，反映了它徹底失去管治的自主權，將抗疫政治化，若把「動態清零」看成不可動搖的政治立場，又如何理性抗疫？如今，根據外國數據，Omicron 的重症及死亡率與流感相若，即使全港兩百多萬人曾感染 Omicron 也屬正常，真正的焦點是能否透過接種疫苗保護長者和長期病患者。

倘若 Omicron 在內地爆發，相信中央政府亦難敵經濟滑落的壓力或民眾的極端反應，恐怕也要放棄「動態清零」了，推出「中國式共存」新口號，例如先把新冠病毒歸類為甚麼新感冒，到時候港府官員及一眾忠心耿耿的良好市民也定必出來擁護「中國香港式共存」！把話說得太盡，不留轉身餘地，實在不智。明明說好要「堅持清零」到底，不負中央心意，突然轉軚又情何以堪？明明說過與病毒共存就必共赴黃泉，但倘若中央一聲令下，又馬上毫不動搖的去配合黃泉之路。說得過去嗎？

話說「金瓶梅」中的武大郎每天在市集販賣同一款燒餅，連日滯銷，其妻潘金蓮見他苦無對策，遂獻計推銷「普天同慶燒餅」，燒餅無需改良，換湯不換藥，總之改個口號，翌日果然客似雲來。武大郎不明箇中道理，潘金蓮笑指天下蠢人何其多！

2022年3月21日

一眾文盲高官

當問及何謂「動態清零」時，香港特首笑說「對此名詞不理解，我不是始作俑者」。據說「動態清零」乃係內地專家和官方提出（發明）的防控策略口號。而「始作俑者」一詞是指惡劣風氣的創始者，那麼，何解特首形容他們為「始作俑者」？

面對外間流傳一些對政府不利的言論時，特首及一眾高官齊以「毫無根據，天方夜譚」反駁。事實上，任何傳聞，即使是謠言，都有其社會性基礎或根據，即使可能與事實不乎，也不能形容為「天方夜譚」。「天方夜譚」出自阿拉伯民間故事《一千零一夜》，此詞一般比喻虛誕離奇的言論。 

回應市民對抗疫隔離設施欠佳的批評，保安局長卻說政府會「精益求精」！人家說你有不足之處，理應謙虛回應，而「精益求精」是假設自己已經很好了，但還自我要求做得更好。差人出身的保安局長，即使文化水平稍遜，亦情有可原，但既已貴為局長，是否也應該提升語文能力？

第五波疫情開始時，衛生局長呼籲市民提高警惕，說政府「必須比嚴陣以待更嚴陣以待」來應對疫情。是文盲的嗎？抑或讀過番書就不懂中文？

從以上例子可見香港高官的語文水平有多低劣。現在，市民每天收到政府發出「九唔搭八」的訊息，一則公立醫院行政改動的通告突然以「緊急警示」飛彈式轟炸全港手機*，今天另一公立醫院同樣的安排卻沒有發出「緊急警示」，令人莫名其妙！

2022年3月10日

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*根據通訊管理局設立「緊急警示」的公告，「緊急警示」系統是在極端天氣、嚴重的公共安全和衞生事故等緊急情況下，向全港手機用戶發出「有迫切性的公告及訊息」。在美國、加拿大等地也有類似的alert message，主要牽涉人身安全和重大事故，接收警示的範圍也限於有關地區。究竟昨天的醫院安排（指定一所位於九龍的公立醫院處理COVID病人）又有何迫切性和廣泛性，必須於下午5時55分發給全港市民？

An Anecdote. Zero Covid or Coexistence?

Thirty years ago I attended an international conference in a Boston hotel during a hot summer week. In an early morning lecture, a few folks arrived at the room on time, and after the lecture began, people kept coming in at different times while the speaker spoke. Latecomers weren't totally unusual on this kind of occasion though not very respectful, but the problem was the door banged shut every time a person came in. That's annoying! Two co-chairmen, one American and one Chinese, sitting at the front bench obviously noted the situation. One of them interrupted and suggested stopping latecomers, and he made that suggestion in a friendly manner. Sounded logical! After all, the lecture had got started for more than half an hour. The other guy, however, requested the conference assistant to help get the hotel staff to fix the door. The anecdote is still relevant: fixing people versus fixing the problem. 

The fundamental issue of all the discussions in the past whole year on "zero covid versus co-existence with the virus" is between restricting people's freedom to stop the spread and achieving the needed herd immunity. If you have absolute power, you can restrict people's mobility and that's the best intervention to achieve "zero covid". This could also be morally correct in the early stage when very little was known about the virus and its possible detrimental consequence, and social restriction was the only way to stop the spread. However, this didn't work for democratic countries, even for a health cause! Even Japan and Korea, where a high level of self-discipline could be expected of people, were no exception! Numbers still soared in these countries. The fundamental conflict with western values and lifestyle naturally steered mentality shift towards finding a cure instead, an effective vaccine in this situation. They did it in an unprecedented short lead-time using advanced mRNA technology. Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna, and Johnson & Johnson have become widely available since early last year. Furthermore, by now, we have also gained a good knowledge of the virus and the extent of its effects, though through a painful process. Most countries are now reopening their borders and lifting all remaining restrictions. 

What do we do in Hong Kong? "Zero covid" is still the official stand, while we are at the same time achieving a high vaccination rate. With Omicron being the dominating variant and being much milder, does it really justify a "zero covid" policy that relies on drastic restriction of freedom? We never needed such drastic restrictions to avoid the spreading of flu or common cold, though severe or death cases were also possible. For Hong Kong, the decision for maintaining "zero covid" has become irrational and purely political, if the vaccination rate has already reached 90%. What's the point for vaccination if you still need to trace every case and identify transmission paths? The fact is that the 0.03% severe cases among the vaccinated patients are not solely covid related because they are mostly from elderly groups or with chronic or critical illnesses. This is comparable with flu that happens every year. 

Our leaders are best at creating linguistic illusions. If you cannot achieve zero covid, you claim that you are achieving "dynamic zero covid", and if you cannot declare co-existence with the virus (as it is a political crime to comply with the evil west), you may declare "co-existence in a special way". Then, as usual, after a bit of brainwashing, we will claim another remarkable victory of a "special-style" co-existence policy! 

March 6, 2022

 

Geometric progression! "Dynamic" zero infection!

"Omicron is spreading in geometric progression!"

Our government officials and health experts have kept saying this in the past few days! Do they really know what they are talking about? Obviously not! Or they only meant to exaggerate the situation to justify the implementation of more drastic measures to support our nationwide zero-covid policy. This could be good for Hong Kong, but the abuse of mathematical terms is not acceptable or truthful, coming from our top officials and medical experts. Looking at it differently, this may simply reflect how ignorant of mathematics these people are!

Geometric progression, a secondary school math concept, means a sequence of numbers successively being kept multiplied by a fixed constant, like 1, 4, 16, 64, 256, 1024, and so on. This is a very aggressive progression! Think about it! If Omicron is indeed spreading in such a progression in Hong Kong, we should be heading to tens of thousands by now. The so-called reproduction number R0, which is used by medical professionals to indicate the contagiousness of a disease, is the number of people possibly infected from a single carrier. With no refinement, direct application of this R0 could indeed end up with the conclusion of a geometric progression with the multiplying factor being R0. If R0 = 4 for Omicron, then we should expect a progression to look like 1, 4, 16, 64, 256, 1024, 4096, 16384, 65536, ... and blowing up in a short time!

(Chart added March 5)

The truth is that spreading dynamics is nothing like this, definitely not a R0 geometric progression! It is rather governed by a dynamical process, where the rate of change of the infected number is a function of the current infected number and susceptible population size, of course with a whole bunch of parameters like infection rate (how fast the virus can spread), recovery rate, and other factors such as non-pharmaceutical interventions that suppress transmission. Technically the so-called compartmental model (commonly called SIR or SEIR in epidemiology research) is a set of differential equations describing the spreading progression, and with data generating the controlling parameters, the model can accurately track the progression. In short, it is never like a geometric progression!

Hong Kong's top officials are mostly trained with a political, art or social science background. They could be extremely sensitive and careful selecting the right words when making a political announcement, but can be completely flexible or imprecise when coming to the use of mathematical jargons.

A more outrageous example of math abuse is 'dynamic zero infection' (動態清零). The term 'dynamic' refers to variation with time. 'Zero infection' is a state of having no infection. That's clear! But 'dynamic zero infection' is a self-contradictory term. None of our top officials could explain what it actually means. Even our CE said publicly that she was not in a position to explain it as she was not the initiator (literally 我唔係始作俑者！). They all knew they could not achieve zero infection, and they all knew Beijing wouldn't like to hear the truth which is 'sometimes zero, and sometimes not zero', and so adopting the term the mainland experts invented is the only politically wise choice. The same usage can be extended to anything that the government can't do or does poorly but wouldn't like to admit.

The lesson is: when you can't find a good way to lie about your failure and you still want to lie, simply say you have made a 'dynamic' success.

February 8, 2022